With a 3-2 Sunday loss to the Washington Nationals, the Baltimore Orioles enter the All-Star break at 44-44 overall. Here we review what we’ve seen from the O’s to date, and project what awaits during the remainder of the year.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
The aforementioned .500 record has the O’s in 3rd place in the AL East; trailing Division Leading New York by 4 games. In the Wild Card face, the O’s are 3.5 GB, but are staring up at 5 teams. One takeaway here is that despite average ish play overall from the Orioles so far this year, a path to the post-season still exists. The other takeaway is that the O’s are trailing multiple teams in their own Division, and there a bunch of AL teams overall in a similar position.
Baltimore is 27-18 at home, 17-26 on the road. They’ve outscored the opposition by 39 runs, and have won just 2 of their last 10 games.
Overall rankings:
Runs 7th
Batting Average 9th
On-Base % 19th
Slugging % 5th
ERA 12th
Quality Starts 23rd
WHIP 17th
BAA 14th
Defensive Efficiency 10th
1st Half Most Valuable Oriole: Manny Machado
It seems likes some time ago now, but Machado started the year with a throwing slump. That combined with the concerns that existed in some quarters about his ability to stay healthy; had some portions of Birdland down on Machado’s long-term potential. Unsurprisingly the defensive slump was short lived. He has been the most talented Oriole overall since he first put on the uniform, and we are seeing it all come together so far this year. He has power to all fields. He remains electric at the hot-corner. He has played every game, and even has 13 steals (and runs well 1st to 3rd). Most importantly, he just turned 23. He’s talented enough to have his own statue at OPACY one day.
1st Half Most Disappointing Oriole: Bud Norris
Realistic arguments could be made for Steve Pearce, and Chris Tillman as well; but I’m going with Norris. Pearce had a breakout season last year at Age 31. Him regressing this year can’t be labeled totally unexpected. After a brutal April and May, Pearce has shown signs of life in June and July. Plus his position versatility has continued to help the O’s. The one thing Pearce did last year that I questioned if he would be able to sustain was his success against RHP. He’s always hit Lefties. Not sure we ever see him lock-in and go on an extended run like he did last year, but I do think Pearce will factor in the 2nd half.
From the time Tillman rejoined the O’s in July 2012, through the end of the 2014 season he made 82 starts. During that run, he was consistently good. Some cringed that he was labeled the O’s #1 starter, when he profiled more like a 2/3; but the bottom-line is that he took the ball every 5th day and regularly gave the O’s a chance to win. This year has been tough. After 206 innings in ’13, and 207 innings in ’14; he has only 90 innings in his first 17 games so far in ’15. K% down. BB% up. Percentage throwing the cutter way down. O-Swing % (percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) down. RH hitters are crushing him. That said, if you took away his four starts vs. Toronto, his overall numbers would look okay. Two of his last three starts have been positive. I do expect Tillman to find his former consistency over the remainder of the year.
Norris is not as good as he was in the 2nd half of ’14, nor as bad as he has looked so far in ’15. He’s got a nice live arm, and he’s given his teams at-least 165 innings in each of the last four years. With just 59.1 innings so far this year, he’s not going to reach that plateau this season. He’s a guy that can help the back of a rotation, and should be excellent as a reliever. Not this year though, as it just appears to be a totally lost year for Norris. In those 59.1 innings, we’ve seen him allow 13 homers. Lefties have a 1.012 OPS against in 147 ab’s.
Best Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez
My order 1-4 would be:
Jimenez: 7-4, 2.81 era, 99.1 ip, 94 hits, 8 hr’s, 32 bb’s, 92 k’s, .661 OPS against
Chen: 4-5, 2.78 era, 110 ip, 95 hits, 17 hr’s, 25 bb’s, 90 k’s, .708 OPS against
Britton: 1-0, 23 saves, 1.72 era, 36.2 ip, 1 hr, 8 bb’s, 41 k’s, .537 OPS against
O’Day: 5-0, 2 saves, 1.07 era, 33.2 ip, 4 hr’s, 8 bb’s, 45 k’s, .498 OPS against
Jimenez and Chen have kept the rotation afloat, and Britton and O’Day are deserving All-Star selections for their work out of the bullpen. I’d take Jimenez and Chen over those two due to the overall innings pitched.
Jimenez’s story is an interesting one. Like we said with Norris, some years are just lost years. 2014 was that for Jimenez. His BB% was 13.9% (career 10.6%). At that level, he just didn’t give himself a chance to compete. The O’s didn’t even dare to use him in the post-season. Most of the Winter was spent with O’s fans wondering how much of his remaining contract the O’s would have to pay on to send him off somewhere else. Instead, Jimenez has built off of his overhauled mechanics (first glimpsed last September) and is performing. In his 17 starts, 14 times he has allowed 3 er or less. (In the other 3 starts, he allowed 4 er each time.) Can he keep this up? Can he reach yet another gear? As long as the control stays as is (7.7% BB%), he should remain effective.
At the BSL Board this week, there was discussion of if the O’s should resign Chen. To reiterate what I said in that thread, there are obvious pros and cons. I think it will likely boil down to the O’s wanting to give him 3 years, and Chen wanting 4 (and there will be a team that will give that to him). I’d be inclined to give him that 4th year. I might have felt different if there were not current questions / concerns with Tillman. If Gausman had been in the rotation all year, and Harvey was kicking ass at Bowie.You go into next year with Jimenez / Tillman / Chen / Gonzalez / Gausman and you will again have a chance to contend. You could lose Chen and still win. That said, you would have to figure out how to replace him, and I feel that will be easier said then done.
It’s often said that relievers in-general are easily replaceable. Which I think is a decent general rule of thumb, but not true when talking about the best. With his GB%, backed by his K% – Britton has an argument for being elite. O’Day has also been excellent every year of his career where he has been healthy. Sure wish I could be greedy and say we still had Miller, and the ability to limit games to 6 innings.
Talking Chris Davis:
Davis enters the All-Star break with 19 homers and 110 k’s. He’s on pace for 35 bombs and 203 strikeouts. He has recently effectively become the O’s everyday RF. His OPS is .787 (within range of his .813 mark for his career).
In an overall MLB game with decreasing power, I like Davis being part of the O’s lineup. Does anyone have a handle on what type of contract he is going to be looking at? He was good in ’12, MVP esque in ’13, horrible in ’14, and he’s been livable so far in ’15. Obviously how Davis finishes will impact both his to-be contract and how the O’s finish overall.
Talking JJ Hardy:
Hardy not hitting in May (.483 OPS) when he returned was not shocking. It was effectively him again going through Spring Training. He rebounded in June (.742 OPS), but is struggling again (.476 OPS) here in July. His defense has helped steady things for the O’s, but the O’s need more production from him offensively the rest of the way.
Talking Jimmy Paredes:
The 26 year old enters the AS Break with a .299 / .332 / .475 slash line. The guy can hit a fastball. It would be good if you could put him in the field somewhere, and not feel he is a liability. Might we see him at 1st next year? It would also be good to see him improve the walk to k ratio (14 bb’s, 69 k’s). He has been struggling in July, maybe a few days off will do him well.
The Wild Card: Kevin Gausman
Gausman enters the AS Break with 3 ML starts, and 27 innings (38.1 combined when factoring in his 11.1 MiL innings) for the year. The start Tuesday in Minnesota was ugly, but oh well. Hand him the ball every 5th day the rest of the way. Ride his arm, and hope he catches fire. He is certainly talented enough to make a difference.
General Thoughts:
Once play resumes after the All-Star break, there are 14 games remaining until the non-waiver deadline. It would be great to see the O’s either play well during that stretch, or totally collapse. Either possibility making it that much easier for the O’s leadership to choose a path between augmenting the existing roster, or trading off assets and building greater system depth. A more likely scenario is the O’s play will be somewhere in-between, and that Duquette and Showalter will have to decide what awaits the O’s during August and September as a best guess. I look at the rest of the Division and continue to be underwhelmed. I don’t think NY’s play is sustainable, and I do think their age will catch up to them. On the other-hand, the lineup is decent, the back of their bullpen is outstanding, and Tanaka has yet to be shelved. Tampa Bay continues to surprise. Despite losing Smyly and Cobb, the rotation continues to compete. Getting Moore back obviously helps. That offense is brutal though, and there isn’t reason to think help is on the way. Boston is playing better, but the rotation is still limited. Toronto has an impressive everyday lineup, and a rotation that still needs help. Baltimore (and the rest of the East) has benefited by the Jays being without Stroman this year.
Baltimore entered the season with an organizational system that was ranked in the lower 1/3 by pretty much everyone. With the issues of Bundy and Harvey, we can not see that ranking improving for 2016 – even with what seems to have been a positive draft. With the number of Free Agents on the current roster, there is certainly an argument to be made for the O’s dealing off what they can, and building additional internal depth. Getting younger, cheaper players who are under long-term team control.
I don’t see that happening though. I think the focus of the O’s will remain on trying to win with this group of players. So, then it gets back to the idea of what can be added to what exists? Fellow O’s Analyst Rob Shields discussed that here. With a limited system, and without Bundy and Harvey to utilize as potential trading assets – it will be more difficult for the O’s to make a larger move for difference making talent. The one option the O’s would have would be taking on contracts, which of course is not something the O’s have shown a proclivity to want to explore under Angelos.
As is, I’m going to project the O’s to win the East, and lose in the ALCS. Overall, I think the core talent is good. The defense, and power are among the best. The on-base % is limiting, as is the lack of an ‘ACE’ unless Jimenez does reach yet another gear, or the light goes on for Gausman.
Andrew Miller’s don’t grow on trees, but finding another of his ilk would be my priority before the end of the Month. Get another strong reliever to pair with with O’Day and Britton, and try and shorten games that much more.
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