With 20% of the 2016 season in the books, the Baltimore Orioles are 20-12 and riding a 4 game winning streak. They are currently tied with Boston at the top of the AL East.
Let’s look back at the assumptions we had before the season began, and review what our opinions are today.
(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)
Preseason Assumption: The 2016 O’s had more power than any Orioles team since 1996, when those Orioles found the seats 257 times, and slugged .472 for the year.
Thoughts Through 32 Games: Baltimore has hit over 200 homers each of the past four seasons, but the ’16 O’s have raised the bar. In their initial 32 games, the ’16 O’s have 49 bombs, and a slugging percentage of .466%.
49 homers / 32 games = 1.53 per game * 162 games = a 248 homer pace for the season. Chris Davis has 9 homers, Manny Machado has 10, Mark Trumbo has 11. If that trio slows, the trio of Pedro Alvarez, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters should be expected to do more than they have. Jonathan Schoop has 5 round-trippers of his own; and is a great example of the depth of the O’s power.
Preseason Assumption: The bullpen would again be elite, with Mychal Givens poised to be a strong bridge to Darren O’Day and Zach Britton. Brad Brach was again being overlooked for his abilities.
Thoughts Through 32 Games: The Orioles are tied with the Seattle Mariners, as the Major League leaders in bullpen era. Interestingly, Baltimore is just 18th overall in innings from their relievers. Givens had a tough first week to begin ’16, but now has 22 k’s in 14 innings of work. Givens has overwhelmed RHHs (.578 OPS against, over 35 abs), but been crushed by LHHs (1.365 OPS against, over 17 ab’s). O’s relievers are 4th overall in WPA.
Preseason Assumption: Trumbo would strengthen the lineup, and enjoy hitting at OPACY. I figured he would give the O’s 25-30 homers, and finish ’16 with an OPS somewhere between his career averages (currently .768) and the low .800s.
Thoughts Through 32 Games: After his 10th and 11th homers yesterday, Trumbo has an OPS over 1.000. He’s on pace for 56 homers. He’s batting .323 (70 points above his career average). I don’t see how one could expect him to maintain this level of production; but could he be on his way to new career highs? Maybe 35-40 homers, a .900 OPS, and a .380 wOBA?
Preseason Assumption: We projected Chris Tillman to rebound some from last year. Really we anticipated Tillman to finish ’16 with numbers that looked similar to his ’15 numbers against everyone but Toronto, who totally owned him. Our Tillman projection was 32 starts, a 3.88 era, 202 innings, 87 er, 26 hr’s, 64 bb’s, with 160 k’s.
Thoughts Through 32 Games: Tillman is currently on-pace for a 3.05 era, 205.1 innings, 70 er, 5 hr’s, 86 bb’s, 216 k’s. His swinging-strike % is 10.9. Last year it was 7.1. His average fastball velocity s 92 (was 91.5 last year, 90.8 in ’14).
Some great signs from Tillman so far, but have to think the homers will normalize, and his runs will go up. That said, the velocity, and swinging strike gains could be indications of a big year.
Preseason Assumption: JJ Hardy wasn’t done offensively, and would rebound to his career norms. Limited to 114 games in ’15, we thought he could provide 130-135 this year.
Thoughts Through 32 games: In ’15, Hardy lacked the ability to turn on balls. Either due to his shoulder, or due to his back; there was zero torque and his numbers (.564 OPS) were ugly. Based on what we were hearing from him in the Spring, we liked his chance to bounce back. Before getting hurt, he had a .701 OPS, which looked a lot closer to the guy he’s been for his career (.720 OPS), than what we saw last year. Most importantly, his defense, which was still elite last year, was looking just as good (or better) to begin ’16. The prediction of 130-135 games doesn’t look real good at his point, with Hardy currently on the DL with a broken foot. At-least that injury is fluky and not another example of him being an aging middle-infielder.
Preseason Assumption: Yovani Gallardo’s peripherals indicated some red-flags about his ability to be productive, but at the minimum; I expected him to make 30 starts, and give the O’s 180 innings at league average 4th or 5th starter levels.
Thoughts Through 32 Games: Might need a mulligan here. He’s doing some throwing this weekend, and that will determine his next steps. Without set-backs, maybe a mid-June return? His average fastball velocity was 88.3 before he got hurt. That was down from 90.5 last year. His late start to ’16 could be a possible explanation there, but unless that ticks back up when he returns, it’s hard to see him having any success. In his first 4 starts as an Oriole, we saw a guy whose average change-up was only a 4mph deviation from his fastball. If he can’t get the fastball up, he better slow the change-up down. The slider was also at 84.8. In the meantime, the Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, Vance Worley trio will continue to get opportunities. Wilson in-particular is currently showing well. Obviously Tillman’s, Kevin Gausman’s, and Ubaldo Jimenez’s spots are secure. If Wilson continues to give the O’s a chance, they won’t be removing him from the rotation. So then, if Gallardo is able to get back, it’s about him showing to be a better option than Wright and Worley. Clearly if healthy, you would think Gallardo’s contract, and experience would earn him another look.
Preseason Assumption: Gausman reaching his ceiling was the biggest wildcard for the O’s going into the year.
Thoughts After 32 Games: This still feels accurate to me. At his floor, he’s going to be productive. His ability to reach his ceiling this year, an be a force at the top of the rotation is still to-be-determined. Good signs so far in his first 4 starts. K’s up, BB’s down. A larger assortment of pitches, with improved secondary offerings. ERA outpacing his xFIP though. The next question is how many innings is he good for this year? Last year he had about 135 combined innings. Will the Orioles hold him to 165-170 innings, or be comfortable letting him go past that? What has been fun to see is that by his own admission, his confidence is up. That happens when you are regularly handed the ball, and are not worried about being sent down.
Preseason Assumption: Joey Rickard would be a superior glove, slap hitter, with some decent on-base skills. It would probably be better for him, if he could bat at the bottom of the lineup, without the pressure of being a table-setter. Would have to evaluate him after the league had gotten a look, made adjustments, and seen what adjustments he made back.
Thoughts After 32 Games: The defensive metrics for Rickard are horrible, but over the past week, we’ve seen some quality play from him. Covering more ground. My guess is that the metrics will normalize, and he will show to be at-least adequate. I think the numbers currently showing him to be a liability, show the limitation of looking at defensive metrics in short samples. That said, he was struggling a bit on his routes and other wise in LF during the initial weeks. It’s worth noting that he played more RF than LF in the minors. Even when the metrics normalize, he might prove to be more of an average glove, vs. an elite fielder.
He’s got a .321 on-base, and he’s on-pace for 45 xbh’s. The on-base % isn’t great, but he’s not being completely overwhelmed leading off. He’s less of a slap hitter than I anticipated him being. There is a little pop there.
Preseason Assumption: If healthy, Nolan Reimold would prove to be the 2nd best overall OF on the roster.
Thoughts After 32 Games: Reimold has produced in the opportunities he has had. It’s not easy to do that, when the playing time is sporadic. Should he continue to stay healthy, and produce in the opportunities he gets, he will force himself into more regular playing time as the season progresses.
Preseason Assumption: If healthy, Dylan Bundy would prove to be an asset out of the bullpen. We wondered if Showalter would utilize him in higher leverage situations, and thought it was likely he would not use him in back-to-back games.
Thoughts After 32 Games: I’m happy for Bundy that he’s healthy enough to be available for use. After the past 3 years, that is a win. Showalter has used him in more higher leverage situations already than I thought he would in the early parts of the year. Still, Bundy has underwhelmed stuff wise at this point. The fastball has appeared flat, and the secondaries not so great. My hope, and belief is that on a month-to-month basis, he will get closer to finding his prior level of ability. I don’t think it’s a Jason Garcia situation like early last year, where he can’t be used. In fact, I think it’s important to continue to use him. Everyone on the roster has to be used. If he doesn’t improve, it would not be shocking to see an ‘injury’ develop which allowed the O’s to remove him from the active roster.
Preseason Assumption: The O’s will win 85 games, and it shouldn’t be a surprise if they play-up a bit and win the 89-92 games likely necessary for a Wild Card birth.
Thoughts After 32 Games: Feeling pretty good about the O’s chances of reaching the post-season for a 3rd time in 5 years. Baseball Prospectus currently has the O’s having a 11.7% chance to win the Division, and a 18.7% chance to win one of the Wild Cards. That combined 30.4% trailing Toronto (36.1%), Tampa Bay (42.6%), and Boston (75.9%). I’m not convinced that Baltimore needs to take a back-seat to any of their AL East foes.
Preseason Assumption: The O’s are going to need to obtain a difference making starting pitcher.
Thoughts After 32 Games: It still feels to me like acquiring a starter capable of making an impact is going to be needed to increase the aforementioned odds of reaching the post-season, and doing damage once / if you get there. Obtaining that hypothetical difference making starter is not going to be easy though. We went into the season thinking all of the American League was going to believe they had a chance to contend. Teams are being buried quicker than I anticipated. In the National League, the races are deeper than I expected. The depth and quality of the O’s MiL system is not strong, and there aren’t pieces from the ML roster that the O’s can move, to bring back talent. The O’s best chance of obtaining a quality starter, might come from taking on a contract some team wants to get out from.
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