The signing of Alex Cobb was a pleasant surprise for Baltimore Orioles fans, a late-spring training gift from Executive Vice President Dan Duquette that strengthened the starting rotation and provided a sense of optimism just in time for Thursday’s season opener against the Minnesota Twins.
A rotation that was once a black hole of despair, featuring just Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman and a whole platoon of question marks, now resembles an honest-to-goodness major league rotation with pitching arms possessing honest-to-goodness major league experience. Granted, the additions of Cobb and Andrew Cashner, along with the return of Chris Tillman, does not exactly make this the second coming of the 1971 squad, but it’s better than it was. And that’s … something.
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The question to contemplate now, though, is just how optimistic should Orioles fans be? How much better is this rotation, and how does it compare to the rest of the AL East? And is it enough to contend for a playoff spot? In an attempt to answer these questions, I’ve turned to FanGraphs and compiled their Steamer projections for the 2018 season. This isn’t perfect, but it’s one measure than can at least give us a ballpark idea of where we are at.
STEAMER WAR PROJECTIONS FOR 2018
Kevin Gausman: 2.4
Alex Cobb: 1.7
Dylan Bundy: 1.3
Andrew Cashner: 0.6
Chris Tillman: 0.1
Total: 6.1
That’s not very good, and interestingly Steamer has Gausman, Cobb, Bundy and Cashner all performing worse than they did in 2017. Here are last season’s WAR numbers:
Gausman: 2.5
Cobb: 2.4
Bundy: 2.7
Cashner: 1.9
Tillman: -1.0
Totals: 8.5
Aside from Tillman, Steamer expects regression pretty much across the board, which is fairly disheartening. But it also really pushes home the point that even the most optimistic thoughts on the strength of this rotation should be tempered. Let’s say, for instance, that young pitchers Gausman and Bundy improve, Cobb stays about the same, Cashner splits the difference between 2017 and his 2018 projection and Tillman manages to pitch at a replacement level. Now you’d be looking at a combined WAR of about 10 or so.
That’s much better, but how does that compare to the rest of the AL East? Let’s take a look, again using 2018 Steamer projections. (Pitchers listed in order of expected place in rotation).
NEW YORK YANKEES:
Luis Severino: 4.3
Masahiro Tanaka: 3.2
CC Sabathia: 1.4
Sonny Gray: 2.9
Jordan Montgomery: 1.7
Total: 13.5
Steamer actually expects some regression from Severino (5.7 in 2017), Sabathia (1.9) and Montgomery (2.7), while boosting Tanaka (2.7) and keeping Gray (2.8) about the same. This rotation is deep and talented, and at least going by Steamer projections, will be the best in the AL East.
BOSTON RED SOX:
Chris Sale: 5.3
David Price: 3.4
Rick Porcello: 2.4
Drew Pomeranz (injured): 1.7
Eduardo Rodriguez (injured): 1.3
Total: 14.1 with all five, but 11.1 with replacement-level pitchers in place of Pomeranz and Rodriguez.
Boston’s top three are so good that even if you replaced Pomeranz and Rodriguez with Triple-A guys, the overall rotation is still going to rate higher than Baltimore’s. With them, it could be better than the Yankees’ group. And this doesn’t even count Steven Wright, who has been suspended for the first 15 games of the season for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS:
J.A. Happ: 2.5
Aaron Sanchez: 1.7
Marco Estrada: 1.0
Marcus Stroman: 3.7
Jaime Garcia: 1.5
Total: 10.4
The Jays have a solid, if unspectacular, fivesome. Nothing flashy here, just a very competent rotation. There are some questions marks however, such as how Sanchez bounces back from a lost 2017 season, and how Stroman manages his shoulder issues. The Orioles can be better than this group, but it would take a few things breaking right.
TAMPA BAY RAYS:
Chris Archer: 4.3
Blake Snell: 2.5
Bullpen game: 0.0
Nathan Eovaldi: 1.7
Jake Faria: 1.5
Total: 10
The Rays are thinking outside the box this year, stocking their bullpen with multiple long men and seeing how far into the season they can go with a four-man rotation. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. The predicted total WAR of 10 isn’t entirely fair, as most of the potential bullpen game starters are projected to have positive WAR, topped by Matt Andriese at 1.3. But with so much uncertainty that it’s tough to predict how things will go. Regardless, the O’s stack up pretty well against this rotation, with Archer being the obvious difference-maker in Tampa Bay’s favor.
BREAKING IT DOWN:
Steamer projections do not treat the Orioles’ 2018 rotation well, but there is a good chance the O’s will at least mildly outperform those expectations, especially if Gausman and Bundy take hoped-for steps forward in their developments. With a small bit of good fortune, this group could easily move into the 10-WAR range. That’s the good news. The bad news is that would still might rank as the worst rotation in the AL East.
So adding Cobb is an improvement, not just enough of one to make the O’s legitimate contenders, even if you expect his presence to save wear and tear on the bullpen and thus make that group better as well.
So what do the Orioles do? There are some free agents still out there who could help and should come cheaply. Scott Kazmir, who was just dumped by the Braves, is one who comes to mind. Kazmir is decent when healthy – that’s a real issue – and Steamer projects him at 0.7 WAR for 2018, which would potentially be an upgrade over both Cashner and Tillman.
They could also open the wallet again and go get Greg Holland. That could take pressure off the rotation by making the bullpen better, and also provide a great late-inning option until Zach Britton returns.
They could also get very aggressive and really go for it in 2018, dealing some of their limited resources for one of the better arms that could be available on the trade market, like an Archer or Julio Teheran or even – if the Giants give up – Johnny Cueto.
Would any of these moves make the Orioles favorites to win the AL East? Nope. Favorites to earn the first AL Wild Card? Unlikely. Contenders for the second Wild Card? Perhaps.
Is chasing a second Wild Card worth giving up any long-term assets or hampering future payroll flexibility? I don’t think so. Keep in mind that Manny Machado will probably not be on this team next season. Britton, Adam Jones and Brad Brach could all be gone as well. You’re going to be building around Jonathan Schoop and Trey Mancini, Chance Sisco and Austin Hays, and yes Gausman, Bundy and Cobb.
If you can get a cheap option to upgrade the rotation, do it. It’s fun, after all, to compete. I’d even pay high dollar for a short-term deal with Holland. But I wouldn’t do anything to hamper the effort to build beyond 2018.
It was not a good move to sign Cobb because it makes the Orioles rotation great for 2018 — it doesn’t do that. It was a good move because it provides a solid rotation anchor for the next four years at a reasonable price. And that’s where the focus should be.
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