We’re into silly season of a different type — though to be fair, the winter is bleeding into the spring and a lot of people aren’t loving it — as projection systems are releasing their numbers for players and teams alike.
If you like projections — and face it, you’re an Orioles fan so probably not, but for good reason — it’d be best to cover your eyes for just a second. The 2018 projections for the Orioles on Fangraphs are….not flattering.
They have the O’s winning 75 games, the same as last year and good for last in the division — somehow four games behind the Tampa Bay Rays. Only three teams are projected for fewer, and they’re the three rebuilding clubs in the AL Central.
Don’t shoot the messenger.
(Chat about this on the BSL boards here!)
Today, we’re going to take a look at the projections for individual players and deduce if we think they’re coming in hot, cold or right on the nose. Both Steamer and ZiPS are among the best projection systems available, but since the former seems to give a better grasp of playing time in how it’s weighted — for instance, Anthony Santander is projected for 463 PA with ZiPS and 84 with Steamer — we’ll roll with that.
Both can be found on player paged on Fangraphs, such as Santander’s here.
Starting Infield
- C – Caleb Joseph: .236/.286/.384, .288 wOBA, 75 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
- 1B – Chris Davis: .228/.331/.477, .342 wOBA, 112 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
- 2B – Jonathan Schoop: .276/.317/.488, .340 wOBA, 110 wRC+, 2.9 WAR
- 3B – Tim Beckham: .253/.307/.425, .313 wOBA, 92 wRC+, 2.2 WAR
- SS – Manny Machado: .291/.351/.543, .373 wOBA, 133 wRC+, 5.6 WAR
The overs:
Machado is clearly capable of this line — and there’s always the dynamic of the “walk year” bump — but none of these guys feel like they’re being overestimated. If anyone is, it might be Manny.
The unders:
That feels a little light on Schoop, though he’ll have to show his .330 BABIP can sustain possible regression. The same may be true for Beckham, who was so good for the Orioles last year, but that was with a .376 BABIP, too. The talent is in there, though!
Right on:
This feels about right for Joseph, who should be usurped by Chance Sisco in very little time. This is also a nice bounce back for Davis, though that still isn’t a particularly good season
Starting Outfield
- LF – Trey Mancini: .274/.325/.457, .332 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 1.1 WAR
- CF – Adam Jones: .273/.315/.469, .331 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 2.0 WAR
- RF – Colby Rasmus: .243/.318/.472, .333 wOBA, 106 wRC+, 1.3 WAR
- DH – Mark Trumbo: .252/.310/.475, .331 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 0.4 WAR
The overs:
They really aren’t high enough on any of these guys to feel bad about it. In fact, they’re all basically identical.
The unders:
Maybe it isn’t low, but it just feels wrong to think Mancini won’t have a higher impact with the bat than Rasmus. Agree?
Right on:
That feels like a vintage Rasmus season, though we can debate how good that really is. It’s still better than playing Trumbo out there! Also, have you seen the Spider-Man pointing meme? That’s Jones and Rasmus as hitters.
Bench Bats
- C – Austin Wynns: .238/.300/.344, .282 wOBA, 71 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
- C – Andrew Susac: .215/.290/.368, .285 wOBA, 73 wRC+, 0.1 WAR
- C – Chance Sisco: .259/.328/.387, .310 wOBA, 90 wRC+, 0.8 WAR
- IF – Engelb Vielma: .228/.274/.287, .249 wOBA, 48 wRC+, minus-0.3 WAR
- IF – Luis Sardinas: .257/.296/.345, .278 wOBA, 68 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
- IF – Ruben Tejada: .257/.325/.364, .302 wOBA, 84 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
- IF – Erick Salcedo: .236/.280/.309, .259 wOBA, 56 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
- IF – Garabez Rosa: .240/.266/.331, .257 wOBA, 54 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
- OF – Anthony Santander: .258/.313/.438, .319 wOBA, 97 wRC+, 0.2 WAR
- OF – Joey Rickard: .252/.313/.364, .296 wOBA, 81 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
- OF – Austin Hays: .275/.309/.453, .323 wOBA, 99 wRC+, 0.0 WAR
General thoughts:
It’s a bench, so there isn’t much to say here. Boy, the sheen has really worn off Susac from his Giants prospect days though, huh? Of course, that’s why he was available as a DFA-limbo trade in the offseason. The projections really, really seem to like Hays for someone who has only 20 games in the big leagues. Almost so much that he could render Rasmus unnecessary? Hard to say. Tejada is probably the best of an ugly infield bench, too.
Rotation
- SP – Kevin Gausman: 183 IP, 8.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 4.50 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 2.4 WAR
- SP – Dylan Bundy: 175 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.00 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 1.3 WAR
- SP – Andrew Cashner: 140 IP, 5.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.40 ERA, 5.35 FIP, 0.6 WAR
- SP – Chris Tillman: 114 IP, 6.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 5.68 ERA, 5.69 FIP, 0.1 WAR
- SP – Gabriel Ynoa: 108 IP, 5.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 5.56 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 0.2 WAR
- SP – Miguel Castro: 46 IP, 5.8 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 5.86 ERA, 5.87 FIP, 0.0 WAR
The overs:
Sweet Pete, everyone, I hope?
The unders:
Nobody.
Right on:
No seriously, I hope for Orioles fans’ sakes that these are all overshoots. They really, really feel like it with Gausman and Bundy, and even maybe Cashner even though I’m way, way out on him from an analyst’s perspective. This is a M.A.S.H. unit, though. Holy smokes.
Bullpen (and bonus arms)
- CP – Zach Britton: 40 IP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.04 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 0.7 WAR
- RP – Brad Brach: 65 IP, 9.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 4.11 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 0.4 WAR
- RP – Darren O’Day: 65 IP, 9.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 4.05 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 0.5 WAR
- RP – Mychal Givens: 55 IP, 10.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.85 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 0.5 WAR
- RP – Richard Bleier: 55 IP, 5.0 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 4.21 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 0.3 WAR
- RP – Donnie Hart: 45 IP, 6.8 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 4.54 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 0.0 WAR
- RP – Jimmy Yacabonis: 20 IP, 7.0 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 5.36 ERA, 5.50 FIP, minus-0.1 WAR
- P – Alec Asher: 27 IP, 5.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 5.78 ERA, 5.82 FIP, 0.0 WAR
The overs:
Honestly, probably nobody. Projections seem to be notoriously conservative toward relievers, and it shows especially at the back of this bullpen.
The unders:
We can probably pretty confidently say that each of the big-three relievers — non-Britton division — are underrated here, and probably by a fair amount.
Right on:
The Bleier and Hart projections seem reasonable. Bleier is going to be super interesting as a non-strikeout guy with big-time groundball potential.
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